Why China Wants to Control the Next Dalai Lama?

Traditionally, the Dalai Lama is selected through ancient spiritual rituals led by high-ranking Tibetan monks after the death of the incumbent.

China’s growing interest in the next Dalai Lama’s selection is not just about religion, it’s about power, control, and political legitimacy in Tibet. For Beijing, choosing the next spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism is a strategic move to tighten its grip over the Himalayan region, undermine the Tibetan exile movement, and erase global sympathy for the Tibetan cause.

Traditionally, the Dalai Lama is selected through ancient spiritual rituals led by high-ranking Tibetan monks after the death of the incumbent. But China has dismissed this system, declaring that only the Chinese government has the authority to approve the reincarnation. Through a controversial process involving a centuries-old “golden urn” lottery and strict state oversight, China is preparing to install its own Dalai Lama, one that answers not to Tibetans, but to the Communist Party.

This battle for the soul of Tibetan Buddhism has now become a geopolitical flashpoint involving India, the United States, and the global Tibetan diaspora, with Beijing determined to shape the future of an institution it cannot spiritually control.

The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, has made it official, the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. In a statement issued in relation with his 90th birthday celebrations in McLeodganj, Dharamshala, the Tibetan spiritual leader confirmed that his reincarnation would succeed him. But behind this spiritual affirmation lies a brewing geopolitical confrontation, one that pits centuries-old Tibetan religious traditions against the political machinery of the Chinese Communist Party.

“In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” the Dalai Lama said, referencing appeals from Buddhist followers, Tibetan spiritual leaders, and government officials from across the world, including China and Tibet.

As reported by Al Jazeera, this statement has sparked immediate backlash from Beijing, which insists that only the Chinese government holds the right to approve the next Dalai Lama. The spiritual succession has now become a global flashpoint involving India, the United States, and the Tibetan diaspora, raising the possibility of two rival Dalai Lamas and deepening the conflict over Tibet’s future.

Why is China interested in the next Dalai Lama?
For Beijing, the Dalai Lama is not just a religious figure, he is a symbol of Tibetan nationalism and resistance. By controlling who becomes the next Dalai Lama, China seeks to neutralise the Tibetan exile movement and suppress any future demand for autonomy or independence.

Chinese authorities view the Dalai Lama’s influence as a threat to their sovereignty over Tibet. His global stature and moral authority, particularly on issues of religious freedom and human rights, challenge Beijing’s narrative of total control in the region.

“This is a battle over legitimacy and not actual rule over territorial Tibet,” Dibyesh Anand, professor of international relations, told Al Jazeera. “Beijing seeks to win that battle of legitimacy but faces an institution and person in the 14th Dalai Lama that is beyond its control.”

What has the 14th Dalai Lama said about his successor?
Speaking to a crowd of monks and followers in McLeodganj on June 30, the Dalai Lama said he felt physically well and committed to ensuring the continuity of the institution.

“As far as the institution of the Dalai Lama is concerned, there will be a framework for it to continue,” he said.

In his March 2025 book Voice for the Voiceless, the Dalai Lama offered a critical hint: “The new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world.” That strongly indicates he will not accept a reincarnation born in China or under Chinese control. He has also previously stated that his successor could be a woman, a view that reflects both his progressive thinking and his desire to preserve Tibetan autonomy in spiritual affairs.

How is the Dalai Lama traditionally chosen?
The Dalai Lama is believed to be the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion. After the death of an incumbent, high-ranking Tibetan monks initiate a sacred and symbolic search to locate his next reincarnation.

This process includes:

Spiritual visions from oracles.

Signs observed during the cremation.

Consultations at the sacred Lhamo Latso lake in Tibet.

Identifying a child who shows familiarity with the belongings of the former Dalai Lama.

Once identified, the child undergoes rigorous religious and philosophical training to prepare for the role of spiritual leader.

The current Dalai Lama, born Lhamo Dhondup in 1935, was identified as the 14th incarnation after passing such spiritual tests. He was enthroned in Lhasa in 1940 and fled to India in 1959 following a failed uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet.

How does China plan to choose the next Dalai Lama?
Beijing has discarded the traditional Tibetan selection process. Instead, it has institutionalized a method of state control over reincarnations of major lamas, including the Dalai Lama.

In 2007, China passed a law mandating that all reincarnations of Tibetan “living Buddhas” must be approved by the state and conform to the rules laid out by the government. Central to this is the golden urn system, a lottery-style method introduced during the Qing dynasty in the 18th century.

According to Chinese officials, names of potential candidates will be placed into a golden urn, and one will be selected by drawing lots, a method the Dalai Lama rejects as spiritually invalid.

On July 2, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated this position. Spokesperson Mao Ning stated, “The reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, the Panchen Lama and other great Buddhist figures must be chosen by drawing lots from a golden urn, and approved by the central government.”

She added, “There are regulations on religious affairs and methods for managing the reincarnation of Tibetan living Buddhas.”

Has China done this before?
Yes. In 1995, the Dalai Lama recognised six-year-old Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama, the second-highest spiritual leader in Tibetan Buddhism.

Days later, Chinese authorities abducted the boy and his family. Their whereabouts have remained unknown ever since. In his place, China installed its own candidate, Gyaincain Norbu, widely seen by Tibetan Buddhists as illegitimate.

Robert Barnett, a noted Tibet scholar, told Al Jazeera that this marked a turning point. “The Chinese side decided that it has to control not just which child should be chosen, but whether a lama can reincarnate, where he or she can reincarnate, who should search for them.”

This episode continues to fuel fears that China might again kidnap or manipulate a chosen child, which is why the current Dalai Lama has vowed that his reincarnation will not be found within Chinese-controlled Tibet.

Could there be two rival Dalai Lamas?
Experts believe this is a very likely scenario. After the death of the 14th Dalai Lama, China may appoint a state-approved reincarnation. Meanwhile, Tibetan lamas in exile — possibly in India, will identify another candidate through traditional means.

“The reality of two Dalai Lamas may not matter to exiled Tibetans from a religious perspective, but it makes life very difficult for Tibetans inside Tibet,” said Barnett. “They will be forced in huge numbers to publicly declare their loyalty to China over and over again.”

The Dalai Lama himself spoke about this possibility in a 2019 interview: “In future, in case you see two Dalai Lamas come, one from here, in free country, one chosen by Chinese, then nobody will trust, nobody will respect (the one chosen by China),” he said, laughing.

What does this mean for India and the United States?
For India, the stakes are high. The Tibetan government-in-exile is based in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh. India has hosted the Dalai Lama since 1959 and shares a tense border with China, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh, both regions with Buddhist populations.

By supporting the Dalai Lama’s right to choose his reincarnation, India sends a strong diplomatic message to Beijing. On July 3, India’s Minority Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju declared: “Nobody else has the right to decide except him and the conventions in place.”

The United States has also backed the Tibetan position. In 2020, the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA), signed into law under President Donald Trump, affirmed that the Dalai Lama alone can decide on his reincarnation. It also authorised sanctions against any Chinese officials who interfere in the process.

What’s at stake?
At its core, the succession battle is about religious freedom, identity, and global legitimacy. For China, controlling the next Dalai Lama is an opportunity to dismantle the Tibetan exile movement and project ideological supremacy over religious institutions.

But for Tibetan Buddhists, it is a fight to protect centuries of tradition, cultural survival, and spiritual independence.

Also Read: “Nobody except Dalai Lama can decide his successor”: Union Minister Kiren Rijiju

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