Israel-Iran War Day 6: Wasbir Hussain Decodes the War So Far and on the Road Ahead

Israel-Iran War: A U.S. attack on Iran could have major consequences for Donald Trump’s presidency and the region.

Day 6 of the War between Israel and Iran and things are escalating in West Asia. On June 13, Israel began a blistering offensive by striking on Iranian nuclear and military targets, marking a pivotal shift from proxy skirmishes to direct confrontation.

The road ahead is fraught with volatility, shaped by Iran’s weakened proxy network, cautious Arab allies, and Israel’s emboldened strategy. Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance”—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias—has been severely degraded, raising questions about betrayal or strategic abandonment, while Arab states play a delicate balancing act.

Iran’s proxies have not betrayed Tehran but are too battered by previous sustained Israeli strikes to mount significant support for Iran at this juncture. Hamas, decimated in Gaza since October 2023, lacks the military capacity to threaten Israel, with its leadership fractured and infrastructure ruined. Hezbollah, once Iran’s most potent ally, suffered a crippling blow in 2024, losing its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, and much of its missile arsenal to Israeli strikes.

Lebanon’s new anti-Hezbollah government, led by President Joseph Aoun, has further sidelined the group, dismantling its weapons depots and refusing to let it drag Lebanon into Iran’s war. The Houthis in Yemen remain active, launching sporadic missile salvos at Israel, but their distance and limited strategic weight make them more symbolic than decisive. Iraqi militias, like Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, have signaled intent to respond but are restrained by Iraq’s government, which prioritizes stability and U.S. ties. This isn’t betrayal but a collapse of capability, compounded by the fall of Syria’s Assad regime in December 2024, which severed Iran’s key supply route to Hezbollah. Iran’s Arab allies—primarily Syria and Iraq—offer little solace.

Syria’s new anti-Iranian government has aligned tentatively with Israel, cutting off Iran’s logistical lifeline. Iraq, while hosting pro-Iranian militias, has curbed their actions to avoid U.S. retaliation and domestic unrest ahead of 2025 elections. Other Arab states, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are no friends of Iran but avoid openly backing Israel’s strikes, fearing regional instability and Iranian retaliation, such as Houthi attacks or oil disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz.

These states prioritize economic integration and quiet diplomacy, as seen in their reluctance to join Israel’s campaign despite shared concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Israel, capitalizing on this moment of Iranian weakness, aims to permanently hobble Tehran’s nuclear program and military reach. Its strikes, including the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC leaders like Hossein Salami, showcase unmatched intelligence and air superiority.

However, Iran’s retaliatory missile barrages, though less effective, signal resilience, and its nuclear program, while set back, remains largely intact. Tehran may now dash for a bomb, risking further escalation, or lean on asymmetric tactics like terrorism via remaining proxies.

The conflict’s trajectory hinges on Iran’s response. A restrained counterstrike could lead to a tense stalemate, with Arab mediators like Qatar or Oman seeking de-escalation.

A bold move, like closing the Strait of Hormuz, could spike oil prices and draw in the U.S., despite Trump’s reluctance. Israel’s aggressive posture, backed by tacit U.S. support, suggests it will exploit any Iranian misstep to reshape the Middle East’s security order, potentially isolating Iran further but risking a broader war.

The death in the past six days of at least six top Iranian military commanders, including the replacement war-time Chief of Staff Ali Shadmani during an Israeli strike on Tuesday has left a vaccum in Iran’s military establishment at this critical time. Now, reports are suggesting that Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is getting isolated following the death of his main inner circle members and that his son Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, considered the number two leader in Iran, is trying to take things under control.

All eyes are now on the role of the United States. Everyone is asking why did US President Donald Trump leave the G7 Summit in Canada mid-way and rush back to Washington? Back home, President Trump called upon Iran to surrender unconditionally but a defiant Tehran said the war has only begun and launched a hypersonic missile attack on Israel.

A U.S. attack on Iran could have major consequences for Donald Trump’s presidency and the region. Trump apparently left the G-7 summit early to decide whether to join Israel in an effort to destroy Iran’s key underground nuclear facilities — or go in a different direction by engaging in last-minute diplomacy with Tehran in a bid to impair its ability to build a nuclear weapon. That’s what reports are saying. Trump told reporters on Air Force One early Tuesday that he was “looking for better than a ceasefire” and wants “a real end” to Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump has also said the US knows where Ayatolla Khamenei is hiding but said they would not strike at his hideout just yet.

Now, one would also like to know which are the countries trying to help reach a ceasefire or bring about a thaw in the prevailing situation. Well, Iran has reached out to Oman and Turkey to advocate for a ceasefire. Saudi Arabia and Cyprus are two other countries actively advocating for a ceasefire. The G& nations, including the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italyand Japan have not directly called for a ceasefire, but have formally called upon Israel and Iran to de-escalate the situation.

Russia and China, too, have urged restraint and called for de-escalation.

Oman has adopted a neutral stance on the war and has good bilateral ties with both the US and Iran. Therefore, Oman has emerged as a key catalyst. Apparently, Iran has urged Oman to advocate for a truce through the US and is reported to have even said they were ready to talk on nuclear issues provided Israel halted the attacks. Qatar also has a neutral position and has also been approached by Tehran to advocate with the US for a ceasefire.

The big question now is will there be a truce or will the war expand by dragging in other players into the conflict? Will the US directly participate in the war or will Washington pursue the diplomacy route? Will Israel be ready to stop its raids and try not to achieve its ultimate goal of crushing and decimating Iran’s nuclear programme as Tel Aviv sees it as an existential threat to the nation? The story is still unfolding.

Also Read: Israel-Iran war: Trump demands “unconditional surrender” from Iran

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